As a flurry of late spending and plans for a last-minute marketing campaign increase from the president underscore how tight the race is, a brand new ballot finds Rep. Mike Levin holds a slight edge over challenger Brian Maryott within the forty ninth Congressional District in coastal San Diego and Orange County.
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Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, leads Republican challenger Brian Maryott 49 % to 43 %, with 8 % undecided, in line with a ballot carried out by SurveyUSA for The San Diego Union-Tribune and ABC 10News and launched Tuesday.
The survey interviewed 725 residents of the district, together with 568 thought-about probably voters. The outcomes have a credibility interval — much like a margin of error — of 5 %, so Levin’s lead is inside it.
The outcomes come shortly after the nonpartisan Cook dinner Report switched its ranking of the Home district from “lean Democratic” to “tossup,” and as political motion committees pour hundreds of thousands into the competition — certainly one of a handful of swing races that might determine whether or not Democrats keep their majority in Congress.
With management of the Home of Representatives at stake, Democrats have deemed the race certainly one of their newest prime 10 “purple alert” priorities for sources, and President Joe Biden is anticipated to marketing campaign within the district this week in assist of Levin.
As of Monday morning, greater than $11.5 million had been spent on the race by political motion committees working independently from the campaigns since March 31 — most of it within the final month, together with $1.4 million since Friday. The candidates’ personal marketing campaign committees have additionally sunk hundreds of thousands into the race, with Levin spending $5.2 million and Maryott greater than $4 million from Jan. 1 by way of Oct. 19.
The race is a rematch between the 2 candidates, who confronted off throughout the 2018 main and once more within the 2020 presidential election, when Levin beat Maryott by about six factors. This 12 months, nonetheless, the race is friendlier to Republicans, after statewide redistricting diminished the district‘s Democratic benefit from six factors to 3.
The race displays nationwide conflicts animating different pivotal Home races, with voters citing abortion and inflation as the problems most essential to them this midterm in Tuesday’s ballot.
Greater than 1 / 4 of survey members selected every of these subjects as their prime precedence from a listing of points, reflecting each widespread frustration with hovering shopper costs and common opposition to the Supreme Courtroom’s June choice to overturn its landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that had protected abortion rights for half a century.
The outcomes additionally revealed partisan divisions over the importance of these subjects, with Democrats way more involved about abortion and Republicans way more involved about inflation. These positions translated into assist for the candidates, with Maryott profitable over 75 % of inflation voters and Levin claiming 87 % of abortion voters.
Republican Brian Maryott and Rep. Mike Levin greet each other earlier than a candidate discussion board at MiraCosta Faculty on Oct. 11, 2022, in Oceanside.
(Meg McLaughlin/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
The candidates have centered on these sentiments in marketing campaign messages. Levin and supporters such because the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee have forged Maryott as an anti-abortion extremist, prompting Maryott to defend his abortion place.
After Maryott and his supporters accused Levin of fueling inflation with reckless spending, Levin countered with a TV advert set at a farm in entrance of cattle, calling Republican plans to scale back inflation “a bunch of bull.”
They survey additionally discovered a excessive variety of voters galvanized by the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol. A majority of probably voters surveyed stated the occasions of that day had been a risk to democracy; 68 % of these deliberate to vote for Levin. Sixteen % stated they think about the occasion a justified protest, and 90 % of these respondents favored Maryott.
The significance of that concern assorted significantly by social gathering, with 89 % of Democrats contemplating the Jan. 6 assault a risk to democracy, versus 21 % of Republicans. Seventy-nine % of Democrats, versus 16 % of Republicans, stated the occasion would play an essential position of their midterm election vote.
The deeply held opinions on points didn’t, nonetheless, translate into unequivocal endorsement of the candidates.
Forty % of survey members held a good opinion of Levin, whereas 32 % stated the identical of Maryott. Their disapproval rankings had been nearer, with a few third of voters polled holding unfavorable opinions of every. Almost as many expressed ambivalence, with 33 % reporting impartial or no opinion of Maryott and 27 % saying the identical of Levin.
Low approval rankings for the present and former presidents might additionally affect the forty ninth District campaigns. Amongst survey respondents, simply 28 % had a good impression of former President Donald Trump, whereas 58 % considered him negatively. President Joe Biden was considered favorably by 38 % of respondents and unfavorably by 44 %.
Nonetheless, 73 % of Democrats cited constructive views of Biden, suggesting that his anticipated go to is aimed toward boosting Democratic turnout.
Within the remaining stretch of the race, impartial expenditures have aimed toward miserable assist for the opposition, quite than bolstering a most well-liked candidate.
In line with FEC data, impartial committees spent a complete of $6,735,334 on commercials, mailings and different outreach to assist Levin win, the overwhelming majority of it aimed toward attacking his opponent. Ten teams spending a mixed $883,359 supporting Levin, and 7 teams spending $5,851,975 to oppose Maryott.
The most important contributor was the Home Majority PAC, a hybrid PAC which tallied $2,712,012 in expenditures for commercials and mailings attacking Maryott. The DCCC, a nationwide Democratic social gathering committee, spent slightly below $1.9 million on political advertisements to assist Levin win.
Of the $4,593,392 in impartial expenditures to assist Maryott’s marketing campaign, one group spent $25,000 supporting Maryott, whereas three teams spent $4,568,392 opposing Levin.
The most important impartial contributor was the Congressional Management Fund, a Republican tremendous PAC. It devoted $4,421,852 to advertisements, mailings and different outreach opposing Levin’s candidacy, spending greater than half of that in October. The PAC additionally spent $25,000 on advertisements to assist Maryott.
The Congressional Management Fund raised at the least $220.5 million total within the 2022 election cycle, in line with OpenSecrets. The PAC’s prime donors embody Chevron, privateness fairness large Blackstone and Citadel, the hedge fund agency run by billionaire and prime GOP donor Ken Griffin. In addition they embody the American Motion Community, a PAC used for distributing political “darkish cash” as a result of it’s allowed to spend funds on elections with out publicly disclosing its donors.
Individually, the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee spent $103,000 in party-coordinated expenditures to assist Maryott win.
Levin has additionally gotten assist from outdoors spending by PACs that obtain vital funding from “darkish cash” nonprofits. For instance, the League of Conservation Voters, which additionally doesn’t need to disclose its donors, is a prime contributor to LCV Victory Fund, a PAC that has spent almost half 1,000,000 on commercials to assist Levin win.
